Saturday, April 01, 2006

The Web is at a new Inflexion Point

Wow the world is changing and fast. We're definately at an inflexion point. Here's what's going on. The web 2.0 is taking hold. The announcement of Google aquiring Writely just really confirms what is happening. And as Java was associated with the web 1.0, now Ruby and especially the phenominal momentum of Ruby on Rails is associated with the web 2.0. And it is growing exponentially. It seems clear to me now that RoR will eat up the J2EE and .Net market from the bottom up given the number of web hosters that offer rails hosting as well. Within a year rails will be a standard offering like php/mysql and have already made inroads into the j2ee/.net corporate world. The j2ee and .Net world will try to respond but the fundamental problem lies with the language. Java is not interpreted. See my other blog on this "How Rails saves time vs J2EE from an architect's POV"

Here is my view of the coming changes. We will go back to a semi-synchronous client / server architecture except this time with only a dhtml web browser and no more applets, activex, flash, etc. There will be a bunch of web2.0 applications built and then eventually a lot of commercial (Microsoft included) and free web 2.0 competing frameworks will eventually be winnowed down to one or two dominant opensource ones (like AWT and Swing in the Java world).

The big battle will be between Google and Microsoft. Google trying to replace all the MS apps via web2.0 apps (example: writely). MS is responing now but will as usual make their web2.0 apps only work with Internet Explorer. This could strategically be a crucial mistake. Will we then go back to a "service" business model as what was being hyped during the web1.0 dot com era? Something tells me not. I think we'll stay with a mix of paid software products and advertising based revenue streams.

One thing is clear is that all companies will have to upgrade their sites/apps to be web2.0 or they will loose traffic and customers. People are making fortunes now just redoing classic apps in web2.0 form. It truly is the web all over again but with less craziness, more experience, etc.

1 Comments:

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